Update from Public Health Cornwall - 30 April 2020

There remains no identified cases in the Isles of Scilly. All precautions remain in place including shielding the most vulnerable, sensible distancing of key healthcare workers and adequate supplies of PPE. This is in addition to the excellent social distancing and hand hygiene precautions that have been adopted across the islands. Travel to and from the mainland continues to be only essential. New testing arrangements in line with national guidance are being organised building on the current arrangements. If a case is identified everything is in place to minimise spread to others. Plans for all scenarios have been agreed to ensure adequate care and staffing.

Across Cornwall daily new cases continue to reduce. There have been 482 official confirmed cases.

Despite increased testing no new cases were identified in Royal Cornwall Hospitals Trust today. Calls to 111 regarding Covid19 symptoms continue at a low rate. Increased testing in care homes is identifying ongoing cases in staff and residents so additional support around infection control, staff and PPE is continuing in care homes. Working with the University of Exeter data science team local models have been produced. These reinforce national modelling. Whilst still in lockdown we can be reasonably confident that cases will continue to reduce and remain low.

Below – University of Exeter Predictive models (Gavin Shaddick and James Salter) Predictions updated daily based on actual data.

In Devon they have started to use an additional interactive predictive model to the above which is able to predict the likely infection rates and admissions by changing the number of people (tourists) and also adjusting the Ro/Rt (reproductive rate) when we know the likely opening up strategies (opening schools etc). We will be testing the Cornwall version from this week.

Consultant in Population Health Management and Health Services

Publishing date: 
Friday, 1 May, 2020